Let’s Talk Futures (Pt. 1) 1/3/2022

Welcome to the first of a series of discussions on the World Series futures markets. Each Monday, I plan on posting a detailed article on where the future market stands, and which teams have considerable value at their current odds. However, with the current lockout, there may be little to no changes until at least February when CBA talks are scheduled to really heat up. For this edition, I will provide insight on one of the four teams’ futures I currently have my eyes on, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Where have World Series winners traditional been in the opening day futures market?

To begin, I think it helps to understand that the winner of the World Series is rarely the opening day favorite, and seldom at odds under -1000, or 10 to 1. Below is a listing of the past 10 years of World Series Champions and their respective opening day odds.

(Courtesy of https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/mlb-champs/)

So, what jumps out? How about the fact that 8 of the last 10 champions were at odds greater than +1000 at opening day, and half of champions at odds greater than +2000 at opening day. And beyond that, it is worth noting that the 2020 opening day favorite Dodgers only played a 60-game season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and somewhat represents an anomaly.

If you took an average of the futures odds at opening day over the past 10 years, the average odds would be north of +1700! From a value standpoint, it makes much more sense (at least based on the past 10 years), to choose a future ticket from the +1000 to +3000 range.

Current World Series Future Odds

(Courtesy of Bovada as of 12/26/2021)

Per Bovada, I have provided the 2022 World Series futures odds as of December 26th, 2021. However, it is worth remembering there are still several free agents available that could swing the odds of several teams depending on where players end up signing. Despite this, we can still find some value in where the odds are currently.

It is no surprise the Dodgers lead the field with odds of 6 to 1. They are the best run organization in the sport, with an analytical edge only rivaled the Astros and Rays paired with the resources of the Yankees. The Dodgers have been and will mostly likely continue to be the best team on paper for the foreseeable future. Despite this, there is very little value here at 6 to 1.

My Tentative Future Tickets as of 12/26/2021

My favorite way to bet this sport is in futures market. Generally, I like to pick two teams from both leagues, for a total of for futures ticket before opening day. Last year, I only placed one before opening day, and this ticket was for the St. Louis Cardinals at 22 to 1. The main reason I took this ticket was to beat the odds shift after Arenado had been traded from Colorado, but the oddsmakers had yet to adjust. Along with this ticket, I also took the Rays around early August at 6 to 1. As you know, these were both losers, and the Braves took the home the hardware in October.

For this piece, I will give the first team I am monitoring from a futures standpoint as a potential play for the 2022 season.

  1. Toronto Blue Jays, +900 (9 to 1)*

I believe the Blue Jays to be the best AL team on paper entering 2022. However, I do not love the odds here and I feel like we are not getting enough value as of this date. I’m hoping that as the lockout dust settles and remaining free agents find their 2022 teams, this number will move north of +1000 and provide backers some additional value.

*As a general reminder on why to always shop lines, Toronto is currently at +1400 at Caesar’s/William Hill.

Reasons to Back

  • Despite missing the playoffs by a mere game, Toronto had a strong 2nd half to the season, with a record of 46-29 (.613) as compared to a more mediocre first half record of 45-42 (.517). Moreover, Toronto finished the last 30 games of 2021 with a 21-9 record, which was best only by the Dodgers and the Cardinals (who were buoyed by a 17-game win streak). Generally, I gravitate towards teams with strong second halves as an indicator of success for the next season. This is especially true for a team that made a deadline splash like the Blue Jays, who shrewdly acquired Jose Berrios, a legitimate ace in the prime of his career.
  • When reviewing the rotation, I was almost surprised by how many quality starting pitchers the Blue Jays have accumulated. The signing of Kevin Gausman to string together the quartet of Gausman, Berrios, Ryu, and Manoah is quite salty. If all can stay relatively healthy (a huge if for any team), this may be the best rotation in the American League, depending on what the Rays and Astros will concoct with their creative imaginations in 2022.
  • Despite that pungent rotation, this is still a hitting team, regardless of the departure of Marcus Siemen. Factor in a full, healthy year of Springer, this team may surpass the offensive numbers of 2021.

Reasons to Avoid

  • As evidenced by missing the playoffs with a 90+ win season, the AL East is easily the strongest and most competitive division in MLB. Toronto could win 90+ games and still be on the outside looking in as the playoff picture pertains. This is the main reason to avoid this future, as this could end up being a team that doesn’t even make the playoffs despite being a strong and well-run ball club.
  • Although a strong rotation, Toronto featured a sub-par bullpen overall in 2021, with relievers totaling 1.6 WAR according to FanGraphs. This team will hit, but can they hit enough to win high scoring games and avoid soul-crushing blown saves? Generally, bullpens are extremely volatile and almost impossible to predict from year to year, so it may take a month or so to truly understand the bullpen situation here.

Currently, FanGraphs has the Blue Jays with the best projected win % a at .569, which implies about a 92-win season. However, it is worth noting that FanGraphs projections are generally more on the conservative side, and that several impact free agents are still unsigned.

Bottom Line: I would shop this line heavily before placing any future, as I would not place this future at the current Bovada number. However, if Toronto can add a depth starter or two in the post lock-out free agent signing frenzy, and the bullpen is even just average, this is my favorite horse to come out of the stacked AL.